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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
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Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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