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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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