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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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