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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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