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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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