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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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