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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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