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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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