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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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