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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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