We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
|
|
|
Showing 136 to 140 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
|
| |
| |
|
