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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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