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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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