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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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