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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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