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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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