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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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