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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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