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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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