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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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