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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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