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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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