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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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