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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 25 November 12
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was buoyant this week with all sectors up except for the Cape size index. The BDI was up by 5.21 pct closing at 10 ...
Sunday, 25 November 12
INDONESIAN SUB BITUMINOUS COAL SWAP CONTRACTS SLIDE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for February 2013 delivery lost 0.76percent WoW but gained 0.16 percent DoD on Friday ...
Saturday, 24 November 12
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR PRODUCES 3.2 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 31.1 million bcm* (-4.0% YoY) of Overburden in October 2012 totaled while coal production was ...
Friday, 23 November 12
CHOOSING THE RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN NEW VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Shipping is all about timing, a process often rising to the height of artform, as ship owners are having to pick the exact moment of selling most of ...
Thursday, 22 November 12
HANDY: INDO-INDIA, LARGE ECO SUPRA NOW FIXED AT USD 12500 - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The north Continent is seeing plenty of tonnages but lack of cargoes. TA business are around 11k and fronthaul is around 17k.Tonnages has tig ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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