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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 19 November 12
IHS MCCLOSKEY ASIA PACIFIC COAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE 2012
With the current global oversupply of thermal coal showing no signs of abating and spot prices falling to a two-year low, concerns are growing that ...
Sunday, 18 November 12
INDONESIAN SUB BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS FOR JANUARY 2013 DELIVERY GAINS 1.29 PERCENT WOW
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for January 2013 delivery gains 1.29 percent WoW and 0.25 percent DoD on Friday, 16 Novembe ...
Saturday, 17 November 12
THE SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week market sentiments ended positive with all the segments ending higher except for handy size which was almost at same levels ...
Saturday, 17 November 12
RECORD DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SEEKS TO CURB TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
This year will prove to be another record-breaker in terms of scrapping of older vessels across all shipping segments, as the equally feverish pace ...
Friday, 16 November 12
SHIP OWNERS KEEP ON INVESTING IN SECOND HAND VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Priced attractively, modern and with prompt delivery dates, second hand vessels are proving to be rather popular among cash-rich ship owners these d ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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