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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 22 November 12
DRY BULK MARKET RISE, BUT OUTLOOK SEEN DIM ON THE BACK OF RECORD NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been under hefty pressure since the start of the year, as a result of record newbuilding deliveries and below-par demand for ...
Wednesday, 21 November 12
LITTLE IMPACT FROM DISSOLUTION OF BP MIGAS ON INDONESIAN OIL & GAS COMPANIES - FITCH
Fitch Ratings has said that the recent court order to abolish the Indonesian upstream oil and gas regulator, BP Migas, has minimal immediate impact ...
Wednesday, 21 November 12
ORPHEUS ENERGY SECURES FIRST COAL OFF TAKE CONTRACT
COALspot.com - Orpheus Energy Limited (ASX:OEG) has announced that it has signed a coal sales contract with an Indonesian steel manufacturing compan ...
Tuesday, 20 November 12
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT HAS LOADED 13.18 PERCENT LESS COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,691,731 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 19 November 2012, Newc ...
Monday, 19 November 12
GOVT PREPARES TO FACE ANOTHER SUIT ON MINING LAW - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is gearing up to face a complaint on the 2009 Mining Law prepared by the same organization that previously brought down upstream oil ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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