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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 29 November 12
BUMI TO PRODUCE 100 MILLION TONS OF COAL BY 2014
COALspot.com - Expansions on both BUMI’ s subsidiaries, PT Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC) and PT Arutmin Indonesia ( Arutmin) , are ...
Thursday, 29 November 12
PANAMAX : A FAIRLY STEADY MARKET WITH USD 8.5-9K/DAY FOR 2 LADEN LEGS IN ATLANTIC - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic market continues to remain quiet due to more supply of ships. Rates from USG to Far East were around USD 18k and Black Sea to Fa ...
Thursday, 29 November 12
DRY BULK MARKET SLIGHTLY HIGHER DESPITE LULL ACTIVITY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market was marginally higher yesterday, according to the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which rose by 7 points to 1 ...
Wednesday, 28 November 12
NEWBUILDING ORDERING PICKS UP AS SHIP OWNERS LOOK TO CLOSE DEALS BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners are active once again in the newbuilding ordering market, as they look to clinch deals ahead of the end of the year. Once again their fo ...
Tuesday, 27 November 12
NEWCASTLE PORT HAS SHIPPED 1.79 MILLION TONS OF COAL W/E 26 NOVEMBER
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 1,793,841 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 26 November 2012, Newc ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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