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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 07 December 12
A NEW PHASE FOR AUSTRALIAN RESOURCES - A FITCH STREET INTERVIEW
This week Matt Jamieson spoke with Andrew Colquhoun in Fitch's Asian sovereign rating team, and Vicky Melbourne, Fitch's commodity analyst based i ...
Friday, 07 December 12
SHIPPING INDUSTRY LOOKING ON YET ANOTHER TOUGH YEAR AS WE APPROACH 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most import ...
Thursday, 06 December 12
PANAMAX : THE POSITIVE VIBES IN THE ATLANTIC REMAINS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market is still depressed with dearth of cargoes and more ships. The trips from Continent to Feast fixed around USD 12k. Trips f ...
Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commod ...
Tuesday, 04 December 12
JATENERGY SIGNS MOU FOR INDONESIAN COAL ASSET
COALspot.com - Jatenergy Limited has announced that its fully-owned Indonesian subsidiary, PT Barata Energy (BE), has signed an exclusive, non-bindi ...
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- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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