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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 12 December 12
69.23 PERCENT OF END-USERS ARE BELIEVE, COAL PRICES ARE IN UPWARD TREND
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal reference price for December’ 12 has gained US cents 31 per MT M-o- ...
Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the foll ...
Tuesday, 11 December 12
NEWCASTLE PORT IN AUSTRALIA HAS LOADED 2,720,205 MT OF COAL W/E 10 DECEMBER 2012
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,720,205 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 10 December 2012, Newc ...
Sunday, 09 December 12
COAL SWAPS HAVE LOST DIRECTION DUE TO LACK OF ASIAN INTEREST
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery gained 2.43 percent M-M but lost WoW by 0.54 percent and 0.62 ...
Sunday, 09 December 12
LOW DEMAND PUSHES CHARTER RATES TOWARDS DOWN - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market has softened and BDI, The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry bulk goods, plunged below 10 ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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