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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 04 December 12
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 55.88 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 3 DECEMBER 2012
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,796,341 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 3 December 2012, Newca ...
Sunday, 02 December 12
YEAR 2013, YEAR OF SUPPLY OR DEMAND?
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1 2013 delivery gained 2.87 & 0.83 percent MoM and WoW respectively ...
Saturday, 01 December 12
TIGHT SUPPLY, DEMAND PUSH INDO-INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES HIGHER - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was mixed this week as cape and Panamax indices are closing softer.
The BDI was down 0.37 pct closing at 1,086 ...
Friday, 30 November 12
FUTURE TREND OF SECOND HAND SHIP VALUES PUZZLING SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
One of the major challenges that ship owners are facing today is whether or not to invest in a second hand vessel at any given time. For instance, i ...
Friday, 30 November 12
IS INDONESIAN COAL INDUSTRY DEPENDS HEAVILY ON INDIA AND CHINA?
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 35,143,587* tons of coal in October 2012. October exports are 19 ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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