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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 17 December 12
SHIP PRICES TO BOTTOM OUT IN 2013 SAYS GEORGE D. GOURDOMICHALIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship values especially in older tonnage, or even modern vessels with poor quality are expected to fall further during 2013, with the market as a who ...
Monday, 17 December 12
SYNERGISING WITH PIONEERS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW'S LATIN AMERICAN RAILWAYS
Press Release: Brazil being one of the largest country in South America has one of the most dynamic rail markets in the world. Rail transport in Bra ...
Sunday, 16 December 12
FREIGHT TREND SOFTENED THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market further softened this week and closed at 784 points (down by 18.84 pct). The cape index had the biggest fall ...
Friday, 14 December 12
GMR GROUP OF INDIA TO IMPORT 100K MT OF 4800 GAR COAL
COALspot.com: GMR Group of India to invite bids for 100,000 Metric Tons of imported non coking coal to be delivered during January and February 2013 ...
Thursday, 13 December 12
HANDY : WCI-CHINA RATES AROUND $ 6000 AND ECI-CHINA AROUND $ 4000 - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Atlantic market remained unchanged. Rates from USG to Feast were around USD 18k and Black Sea to Feast about USD 10k. USG-Skaw-Passero rates ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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