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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 24 December 12
CONSTITUTIONAL COURT DECISION MAY FURTHER DELAY THE ISSUANCE OF NEW MINING BUSINESS LICENCES - TJEN SHE SIUNG
COALspot.com - In November 2012 the Constitutional Court of Indonesia issued a decision on amendments to certain provisions under the Mining Law No. ...
Monday, 24 December 12
BUNKER PRICES TO CONTINUE RISING, ALBEIT IN A SLOWER MODE, DURING THE NEXT FEW YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEW
In a recent report, US-based consulting firm Mcquilling Services attempted to forecast the course of bunker prices during the next few years, as thi ...
Sunday, 23 December 12
Q4' 2013 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP, US$ 3.40 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 2013 PRICE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery gained 1.94 percent M-M and WoW by 1.57percent but lost 0.35 ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
SECOND HAND VESSELS ENJOY HIGH DEMAND AS PRICES ARE ATTRACTIVE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the year is closing to its end, activity in the second hand vessel market has been more than high. Ship owners are looking to ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
FALL IN CAPE AND PANAMAX RATES DRAG BDI INDEX - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market further softened this week closing at 700 points (down by 10.71 pct). The cape index continued to fall and w ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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