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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 24 December 12
CONSTITUTIONAL COURT DECISION MAY FURTHER DELAY THE ISSUANCE OF NEW MINING BUSINESS LICENCES - TJEN SHE SIUNG
COALspot.com - In November 2012 the Constitutional Court of Indonesia issued a decision on amendments to certain provisions under the Mining Law No. ...
Monday, 24 December 12
BUNKER PRICES TO CONTINUE RISING, ALBEIT IN A SLOWER MODE, DURING THE NEXT FEW YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEW
In a recent report, US-based consulting firm Mcquilling Services attempted to forecast the course of bunker prices during the next few years, as thi ...
Sunday, 23 December 12
Q4' 2013 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP, US$ 3.40 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 2013 PRICE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery gained 1.94 percent M-M and WoW by 1.57percent but lost 0.35 ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
SECOND HAND VESSELS ENJOY HIGH DEMAND AS PRICES ARE ATTRACTIVE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the year is closing to its end, activity in the second hand vessel market has been more than high. Ship owners are looking to ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
FALL IN CAPE AND PANAMAX RATES DRAG BDI INDEX - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market further softened this week closing at 700 points (down by 10.71 pct). The cape index continued to fall and w ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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