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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mai ...
Wednesday, 02 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.61 PERCENT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,533,183 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 31 December 2012, Newc ...
Monday, 31 December 12
KOSEP IS LOOKING FOR 280K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR APRIL - JUNE 2013
COALspot.com : South Korean state-owned utility Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOSEP), has issued an new tender for prompt supply of 280,00 ...
Monday, 31 December 12
VALE CELEBRATES ARRIVAL OF "VALE SOHAR" BULK CARRIER TO SULTANATE WITH MEMBERS OF COMMUNITY
'Vale Sohar', one of the largest bulk carriers in the world, was welcomed to Oman by members of the North Al Batinah community headed by H.E. Shei ...
Monday, 31 December 12
"DISTRESSED", "ECO" AND "FINANCE" ARE THE THREE WORDS WHICH CHARACTERIZED 2012 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2012 was yet another year of speculation, anticipation, pessimism and more speculation in the shipping markets. According to the latest weekly repor ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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