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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mai ...
Wednesday, 02 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.61 PERCENT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,533,183 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 31 December 2012, Newc ...
Monday, 31 December 12
KOSEP IS LOOKING FOR 280K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR APRIL - JUNE 2013
COALspot.com : South Korean state-owned utility Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOSEP), has issued an new tender for prompt supply of 280,00 ...
Monday, 31 December 12
VALE CELEBRATES ARRIVAL OF "VALE SOHAR" BULK CARRIER TO SULTANATE WITH MEMBERS OF COMMUNITY
'Vale Sohar', one of the largest bulk carriers in the world, was welcomed to Oman by members of the North Al Batinah community headed by H.E. Shei ...
Monday, 31 December 12
"DISTRESSED", "ECO" AND "FINANCE" ARE THE THREE WORDS WHICH CHARACTERIZED 2012 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2012 was yet another year of speculation, anticipation, pessimism and more speculation in the shipping markets. According to the latest weekly repor ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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