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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 29 December 12
SHIPBREAKING YARDS IN INDIA DEMOLISH A TOTAL OF 527 VESSELS IN 2012, BREAKING ALL PREVIOUS RECORDS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
India's ship demolition experts of Star Matrix contemplated this week on the issue of why ships in the range of 1,000 and up to 6,500 liquid tons ( ...
Thursday, 27 December 12
A LOOK AT WORLD TRADE PATTERNS DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
While China's leaders are likely to stick with the 2012 economic growth rate of 7.5% when they chart a course for 2013 - its weakest pace since 199 ...
Thursday, 27 December 12
INDONESIA SHIPPED 33.578* MMT COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter has shipped 33.578* million tons of coal in November 2012. thi ...
Wednesday, 26 December 12
UPDATE ON EXPORT BAN ON RAW MINERALS AND ORE - RITA SUSANTO
COALspot.com - In May 2012, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (“MoEMR”) in Regulation No.7 (“Reg-7”, amended by R ...
Wednesday, 26 December 12
SHIP OWNERS WRAP UP NEWBUILDING DEALS PRIOR TO YEAR END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the year inches closer and closer to its end, many ship owners are looking to close deals for newbuilding vessels they have been negotiating duri ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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