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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 06 January 13
FREIGHT MARKET REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
WISH YOU ALL HAPPY NEW YEAR
COALspot.com - The freight market remained fairly steady in spite of Christmas / New Year Holidays. The BDI was almos ...
Saturday, 05 January 13
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2012 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
Global Economy: Things will go up from here
The global economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than previous years. The slower economic ...
Friday, 04 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR DIRECTION IN FIRST TRADING DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is actively looking for its footing at the start of the New Year, as charters have been scarce, as is usually the case during th ...
Thursday, 03 January 13
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS CLOSED US$ 6.86 HIGHER FOR 2014 DELIVERY
COALspot.com - Swaps prices were changed positively for thermal coal for loading in the first quarter from Indonesia, according to SGX AsiaClear OTC ...
Thursday, 03 January 13
SUPRMAX FREIGHT RATE FROM RED SEA / INDIA IS AROUND MID TEENS - FEARNLEYS
Fearnleys in its weekly report said that, Indian market was very quiet in respect of export of iron ore. For Indo-India trip Supra rate was hovering ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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