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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 06 January 13
FREIGHT MARKET REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
WISH YOU ALL HAPPY NEW YEAR
COALspot.com - The freight market remained fairly steady in spite of Christmas / New Year Holidays. The BDI was almos ...
Saturday, 05 January 13
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2012 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
Global Economy: Things will go up from here
The global economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than previous years. The slower economic ...
Friday, 04 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR DIRECTION IN FIRST TRADING DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is actively looking for its footing at the start of the New Year, as charters have been scarce, as is usually the case during th ...
Thursday, 03 January 13
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS CLOSED US$ 6.86 HIGHER FOR 2014 DELIVERY
COALspot.com - Swaps prices were changed positively for thermal coal for loading in the first quarter from Indonesia, according to SGX AsiaClear OTC ...
Thursday, 03 January 13
SUPRMAX FREIGHT RATE FROM RED SEA / INDIA IS AROUND MID TEENS - FEARNLEYS
Fearnleys in its weekly report said that, Indian market was very quiet in respect of export of iron ore. For Indo-India trip Supra rate was hovering ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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