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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 13 January 13
THE FREIGHT MARKET: FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was fairly steady with all the indices up with maximum gain in the Panamax segment. The BDI was up by 7.65 pct clo ...
Saturday, 12 January 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEAK
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery has lost 0.32 percent WoW but CFR South China coal ship ...
Saturday, 12 January 13
HIGHER COAL PRICES: SEASONAL EFFECT
COALspot.com : Bahana Securities, one of the leading securities in Indonesia, said in its latest coal outlook that, on US and China&rsquo ...
Friday, 11 January 13
HBA HAS JUMPED BY US$ 5.80 PMT IN JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared bench mark price for coal higher than December price. The monthly coal reference price f ...
Thursday, 10 January 13
PANAMAX : SOME GLIMMERS OF HOPE MID WEEK - FEARNLEYS
According to Fearnley’s weekly report, the Atlantic handy market is stable with rates around USD 11k for Cont-Feast and USD 17k bss USG/Feast. ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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