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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 10 January 13
DRY BULK PANAMAX MARKET HEAVILY OVERSUPPLIED, UNLIKELY TO FIND SUPPORT IN 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite positive indication for a significant surge of dry bulk demand this year, the oversupply problems of the market, will continue to weigh heav ...
Tuesday, 08 January 13
HOLIDAY ACTIVITY SCARCE IN THE MARKET OF SECOND HAND VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although the market for second hand vessel purchasing was quite lull during the Holiday period, as is usually the case, the first days of the New Ye ...
Tuesday, 08 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 3.197 MILLION MT OF COAL W/E 7 JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,197,580 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 7 January 2013, Newcas ...
Sunday, 06 January 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL: 2014 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 6.80 HIGHER THAN Q1 '13 PRICE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.37 percent WoW and CFR South China coal sh ...
Sunday, 06 January 13
COAL BOOM: WAKE-UP CALL FOR INDIA & INDONESIA! - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Coal Boom : Scenario, Now & later!
Coal has been the dominant fuel for power generating plants in developed countries since th ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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