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Thursday, 20 December 12
CHINA'S IRON ORE AND COAL DEMAND WILL SHAPE THE CAPESIZE DRY BULK TRADE DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Despite the best efforts from ship owners to help alleviate the current tonnage oversupply issue in the dry bulk segment, especially in the larger vessel types of Capesizes, shipbrokers have suggested that it will be the demand aspect of the equation, which will determine whether the market will return to healthier levels during 2013. According to a report from shipbroker firm Intermodal, the rally in charter rates that has been recorded over the past three months has been in high contrast to the overall performance of Capes throughout 2012.
"It's been a completely uninspiring year with the Cape index hovering between 1,000 and 1,500 points for the first 9 months, only managing to break through this range in early October, as a strong drive in iron ore fixtures, mainly supported by the vast stockpiling undertaken by the Chinese, helped push the Index to just over 2,500 points. It is important to point out that we had a peak during November in China’s iron ore imports, which reached their highest level for 2012 and similar only to the volumes seen the same period last year, where rates for capes followed almost the same pattern.
The iron ore market has now turned on its head, as imported ore prices exceed that of the average Chinese produced supplies for the first time since June this year. There is now little reasoning for haste stock piling to take place, especially since prices have reached over $ 124 per dry metric ton, while at the same time arbitrage between local sourced supplies and those shipped from Brazil and Australia is limited. On the plus side much of this firming in prices has been generated by optimism amongst traders that the new improved economic figures coming out of China could propel demand for iron ore much higher over the next couple of months. This has possibly created a speculative sentiment and possibly a situation where we could see a spike in demand within early 2013" wrote Eva Tzima.
She argued that "opportunities have already been unveiled during this final quarter, as the nine-month period of sub-par earnings have started to be reflected in asset values. Despite the overall absence of new orders, newbuilding prices seem to have stopped their drop and are not looking likely to have room to fall much further. On the other side of the equation, we have the fairly strong demo prices on offer keeping the scrap value of a typical capesize bulker (~22,000ldt) well above $ 8.0m. This has created a squeeze in the secondhand market, which, in combination to the drop in prices, means that considering both the newbuilding cost and current scrap value, assets are fairly favorably priced. The most notable example is the case of 15year old vessels which have lately been valued at levels of around $ 11.0m, only 38% higher than their residual scrap value. This has also been heavily reflected in the higher SnP activity noted for 15-20year olds, which accounted for 35% of all cape sales this year".
Concluding, Tzima noted that "we may well have expectations for a slower fleet growth rate of just above 6% next year, however even this may prove to be overwhelming if iron ore and coal seaborne trade keep trending at the same sluggish pace of the first three quarters of 2012. As has been shown in the past 3 months, it all comes down to the support the Chinese government will give to its stimulus plan and by how much this will feed through into the market via growth linked commodities demand and increased infrastructure development" she said.
In terms of newbuilding activity, which is always a determining factor in terms of supply, Intermodal's latest report noted that "there is still some small activity in the newbuilding sector despite the fact that we are approaching the end of the year. It is evident that the wet rather than the dry sector has fed higher activity for the shipbuilding industry this year. With the recent example of Scorpio’s large order reported last week, it is fair to assume that the support from the wet sector has been due to demand for new ECO designs as well as shuttle tankers that have gathered quite a few supporters within the industry. Market sentiment holds the belief that newbuilding prices might have already , or are close to reaching their bottom, especially since steel prices have been firming during the second quarter of the year and one can safely assume that it wont make much economic sense for yards to push their newbuilding prices further down. In terms of reported deals this week, BP has also shaken the wet market with its order last week at STX, Korea of ten Aframaxes for high $50m each and 3 Suezmaxes for high $60 each, for delivery between 2015 an 2016. The vessels are of very high specification including a lot of extras as well as Salt Water Scrubber system in order to comply with tier 3 SOX requirements".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 17 December 12
SHIP PRICES TO BOTTOM OUT IN 2013 SAYS GEORGE D. GOURDOMICHALIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship values especially in older tonnage, or even modern vessels with poor quality are expected to fall further during 2013, with the market as a who ...
Monday, 17 December 12
SYNERGISING WITH PIONEERS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW'S LATIN AMERICAN RAILWAYS
Press Release: Brazil being one of the largest country in South America has one of the most dynamic rail markets in the world. Rail transport in Bra ...
Sunday, 16 December 12
FREIGHT TREND SOFTENED THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market further softened this week and closed at 784 points (down by 18.84 pct). The cape index had the biggest fall ...
Friday, 14 December 12
GMR GROUP OF INDIA TO IMPORT 100K MT OF 4800 GAR COAL
COALspot.com: GMR Group of India to invite bids for 100,000 Metric Tons of imported non coking coal to be delivered during January and February 2013 ...
Thursday, 13 December 12
HANDY : WCI-CHINA RATES AROUND $ 6000 AND ECI-CHINA AROUND $ 4000 - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Atlantic market remained unchanged. Rates from USG to Feast were around USD 18k and Black Sea to Feast about USD 10k. USG-Skaw-Passero rates ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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