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Thursday, 20 December 12
CHINA'S IRON ORE AND COAL DEMAND WILL SHAPE THE CAPESIZE DRY BULK TRADE DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Despite the best efforts from ship owners to help alleviate the current tonnage oversupply issue in the dry bulk segment, especially in the larger vessel types of Capesizes, shipbrokers have suggested that it will be the demand aspect of the equation, which will determine whether the market will return to healthier levels during 2013. According to a report from shipbroker firm Intermodal, the rally in charter rates that has been recorded over the past three months has been in high contrast to the overall performance of Capes throughout 2012.
"It's been a completely uninspiring year with the Cape index hovering between 1,000 and 1,500 points for the first 9 months, only managing to break through this range in early October, as a strong drive in iron ore fixtures, mainly supported by the vast stockpiling undertaken by the Chinese, helped push the Index to just over 2,500 points. It is important to point out that we had a peak during November in China’s iron ore imports, which reached their highest level for 2012 and similar only to the volumes seen the same period last year, where rates for capes followed almost the same pattern.
The iron ore market has now turned on its head, as imported ore prices exceed that of the average Chinese produced supplies for the first time since June this year. There is now little reasoning for haste stock piling to take place, especially since prices have reached over $ 124 per dry metric ton, while at the same time arbitrage between local sourced supplies and those shipped from Brazil and Australia is limited. On the plus side much of this firming in prices has been generated by optimism amongst traders that the new improved economic figures coming out of China could propel demand for iron ore much higher over the next couple of months. This has possibly created a speculative sentiment and possibly a situation where we could see a spike in demand within early 2013" wrote Eva Tzima.
She argued that "opportunities have already been unveiled during this final quarter, as the nine-month period of sub-par earnings have started to be reflected in asset values. Despite the overall absence of new orders, newbuilding prices seem to have stopped their drop and are not looking likely to have room to fall much further. On the other side of the equation, we have the fairly strong demo prices on offer keeping the scrap value of a typical capesize bulker (~22,000ldt) well above $ 8.0m. This has created a squeeze in the secondhand market, which, in combination to the drop in prices, means that considering both the newbuilding cost and current scrap value, assets are fairly favorably priced. The most notable example is the case of 15year old vessels which have lately been valued at levels of around $ 11.0m, only 38% higher than their residual scrap value. This has also been heavily reflected in the higher SnP activity noted for 15-20year olds, which accounted for 35% of all cape sales this year".
Concluding, Tzima noted that "we may well have expectations for a slower fleet growth rate of just above 6% next year, however even this may prove to be overwhelming if iron ore and coal seaborne trade keep trending at the same sluggish pace of the first three quarters of 2012. As has been shown in the past 3 months, it all comes down to the support the Chinese government will give to its stimulus plan and by how much this will feed through into the market via growth linked commodities demand and increased infrastructure development" she said.
In terms of newbuilding activity, which is always a determining factor in terms of supply, Intermodal's latest report noted that "there is still some small activity in the newbuilding sector despite the fact that we are approaching the end of the year. It is evident that the wet rather than the dry sector has fed higher activity for the shipbuilding industry this year. With the recent example of Scorpio’s large order reported last week, it is fair to assume that the support from the wet sector has been due to demand for new ECO designs as well as shuttle tankers that have gathered quite a few supporters within the industry. Market sentiment holds the belief that newbuilding prices might have already , or are close to reaching their bottom, especially since steel prices have been firming during the second quarter of the year and one can safely assume that it wont make much economic sense for yards to push their newbuilding prices further down. In terms of reported deals this week, BP has also shaken the wet market with its order last week at STX, Korea of ten Aframaxes for high $50m each and 3 Suezmaxes for high $60 each, for delivery between 2015 an 2016. The vessels are of very high specification including a lot of extras as well as Salt Water Scrubber system in order to comply with tier 3 SOX requirements".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 26 December 12
SHIP OWNERS WRAP UP NEWBUILDING DEALS PRIOR TO YEAR END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the year inches closer and closer to its end, many ship owners are looking to close deals for newbuilding vessels they have been negotiating duri ...
Monday, 24 December 12
CONSTITUTIONAL COURT DECISION MAY FURTHER DELAY THE ISSUANCE OF NEW MINING BUSINESS LICENCES - TJEN SHE SIUNG
COALspot.com - In November 2012 the Constitutional Court of Indonesia issued a decision on amendments to certain provisions under the Mining Law No. ...
Monday, 24 December 12
BUNKER PRICES TO CONTINUE RISING, ALBEIT IN A SLOWER MODE, DURING THE NEXT FEW YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEW
In a recent report, US-based consulting firm Mcquilling Services attempted to forecast the course of bunker prices during the next few years, as thi ...
Sunday, 23 December 12
Q4' 2013 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP, US$ 3.40 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 2013 PRICE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery gained 1.94 percent M-M and WoW by 1.57percent but lost 0.35 ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
SECOND HAND VESSELS ENJOY HIGH DEMAND AS PRICES ARE ATTRACTIVE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the year is closing to its end, activity in the second hand vessel market has been more than high. Ship owners are looking to ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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