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Thursday, 20 December 12
CHINA'S IRON ORE AND COAL DEMAND WILL SHAPE THE CAPESIZE DRY BULK TRADE DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Despite the best efforts from ship owners to help alleviate the current tonnage oversupply issue in the dry bulk segment, especially in the larger vessel types of Capesizes, shipbrokers have suggested that it will be the demand aspect of the equation, which will determine whether the market will return to healthier levels during 2013. According to a report from shipbroker firm Intermodal, the rally in charter rates that has been recorded over the past three months has been in high contrast to the overall performance of Capes throughout 2012.
"It's been a completely uninspiring year with the Cape index hovering between 1,000 and 1,500 points for the first 9 months, only managing to break through this range in early October, as a strong drive in iron ore fixtures, mainly supported by the vast stockpiling undertaken by the Chinese, helped push the Index to just over 2,500 points. It is important to point out that we had a peak during November in China’s iron ore imports, which reached their highest level for 2012 and similar only to the volumes seen the same period last year, where rates for capes followed almost the same pattern.
The iron ore market has now turned on its head, as imported ore prices exceed that of the average Chinese produced supplies for the first time since June this year. There is now little reasoning for haste stock piling to take place, especially since prices have reached over $ 124 per dry metric ton, while at the same time arbitrage between local sourced supplies and those shipped from Brazil and Australia is limited. On the plus side much of this firming in prices has been generated by optimism amongst traders that the new improved economic figures coming out of China could propel demand for iron ore much higher over the next couple of months. This has possibly created a speculative sentiment and possibly a situation where we could see a spike in demand within early 2013" wrote Eva Tzima.
She argued that "opportunities have already been unveiled during this final quarter, as the nine-month period of sub-par earnings have started to be reflected in asset values. Despite the overall absence of new orders, newbuilding prices seem to have stopped their drop and are not looking likely to have room to fall much further. On the other side of the equation, we have the fairly strong demo prices on offer keeping the scrap value of a typical capesize bulker (~22,000ldt) well above $ 8.0m. This has created a squeeze in the secondhand market, which, in combination to the drop in prices, means that considering both the newbuilding cost and current scrap value, assets are fairly favorably priced. The most notable example is the case of 15year old vessels which have lately been valued at levels of around $ 11.0m, only 38% higher than their residual scrap value. This has also been heavily reflected in the higher SnP activity noted for 15-20year olds, which accounted for 35% of all cape sales this year".
Concluding, Tzima noted that "we may well have expectations for a slower fleet growth rate of just above 6% next year, however even this may prove to be overwhelming if iron ore and coal seaborne trade keep trending at the same sluggish pace of the first three quarters of 2012. As has been shown in the past 3 months, it all comes down to the support the Chinese government will give to its stimulus plan and by how much this will feed through into the market via growth linked commodities demand and increased infrastructure development" she said.
In terms of newbuilding activity, which is always a determining factor in terms of supply, Intermodal's latest report noted that "there is still some small activity in the newbuilding sector despite the fact that we are approaching the end of the year. It is evident that the wet rather than the dry sector has fed higher activity for the shipbuilding industry this year. With the recent example of Scorpio’s large order reported last week, it is fair to assume that the support from the wet sector has been due to demand for new ECO designs as well as shuttle tankers that have gathered quite a few supporters within the industry. Market sentiment holds the belief that newbuilding prices might have already , or are close to reaching their bottom, especially since steel prices have been firming during the second quarter of the year and one can safely assume that it wont make much economic sense for yards to push their newbuilding prices further down. In terms of reported deals this week, BP has also shaken the wet market with its order last week at STX, Korea of ten Aframaxes for high $50m each and 3 Suezmaxes for high $60 each, for delivery between 2015 an 2016. The vessels are of very high specification including a lot of extras as well as Salt Water Scrubber system in order to comply with tier 3 SOX requirements".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 31 December 12
"DISTRESSED", "ECO" AND "FINANCE" ARE THE THREE WORDS WHICH CHARACTERIZED 2012 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2012 was yet another year of speculation, anticipation, pessimism and more speculation in the shipping markets. According to the latest weekly repor ...
Saturday, 29 December 12
SHIPBREAKING YARDS IN INDIA DEMOLISH A TOTAL OF 527 VESSELS IN 2012, BREAKING ALL PREVIOUS RECORDS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
India's ship demolition experts of Star Matrix contemplated this week on the issue of why ships in the range of 1,000 and up to 6,500 liquid tons ( ...
Thursday, 27 December 12
A LOOK AT WORLD TRADE PATTERNS DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
While China's leaders are likely to stick with the 2012 economic growth rate of 7.5% when they chart a course for 2013 - its weakest pace since 199 ...
Thursday, 27 December 12
INDONESIA SHIPPED 33.578* MMT COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter has shipped 33.578* million tons of coal in November 2012. thi ...
Wednesday, 26 December 12
UPDATE ON EXPORT BAN ON RAW MINERALS AND ORE - RITA SUSANTO
COALspot.com - In May 2012, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (“MoEMR”) in Regulation No.7 (“Reg-7”, amended by R ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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