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Thursday, 20 December 12
CHINA'S IRON ORE AND COAL DEMAND WILL SHAPE THE CAPESIZE DRY BULK TRADE DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Despite the best efforts from ship owners to help alleviate the current tonnage oversupply issue in the dry bulk segment, especially in the larger vessel types of Capesizes, shipbrokers have suggested that it will be the demand aspect of the equation, which will determine whether the market will return to healthier levels during 2013. According to a report from shipbroker firm Intermodal, the rally in charter rates that has been recorded over the past three months has been in high contrast to the overall performance of Capes throughout 2012.
"It's been a completely uninspiring year with the Cape index hovering between 1,000 and 1,500 points for the first 9 months, only managing to break through this range in early October, as a strong drive in iron ore fixtures, mainly supported by the vast stockpiling undertaken by the Chinese, helped push the Index to just over 2,500 points. It is important to point out that we had a peak during November in China’s iron ore imports, which reached their highest level for 2012 and similar only to the volumes seen the same period last year, where rates for capes followed almost the same pattern.
The iron ore market has now turned on its head, as imported ore prices exceed that of the average Chinese produced supplies for the first time since June this year. There is now little reasoning for haste stock piling to take place, especially since prices have reached over $ 124 per dry metric ton, while at the same time arbitrage between local sourced supplies and those shipped from Brazil and Australia is limited. On the plus side much of this firming in prices has been generated by optimism amongst traders that the new improved economic figures coming out of China could propel demand for iron ore much higher over the next couple of months. This has possibly created a speculative sentiment and possibly a situation where we could see a spike in demand within early 2013" wrote Eva Tzima.
She argued that "opportunities have already been unveiled during this final quarter, as the nine-month period of sub-par earnings have started to be reflected in asset values. Despite the overall absence of new orders, newbuilding prices seem to have stopped their drop and are not looking likely to have room to fall much further. On the other side of the equation, we have the fairly strong demo prices on offer keeping the scrap value of a typical capesize bulker (~22,000ldt) well above $ 8.0m. This has created a squeeze in the secondhand market, which, in combination to the drop in prices, means that considering both the newbuilding cost and current scrap value, assets are fairly favorably priced. The most notable example is the case of 15year old vessels which have lately been valued at levels of around $ 11.0m, only 38% higher than their residual scrap value. This has also been heavily reflected in the higher SnP activity noted for 15-20year olds, which accounted for 35% of all cape sales this year".
Concluding, Tzima noted that "we may well have expectations for a slower fleet growth rate of just above 6% next year, however even this may prove to be overwhelming if iron ore and coal seaborne trade keep trending at the same sluggish pace of the first three quarters of 2012. As has been shown in the past 3 months, it all comes down to the support the Chinese government will give to its stimulus plan and by how much this will feed through into the market via growth linked commodities demand and increased infrastructure development" she said.
In terms of newbuilding activity, which is always a determining factor in terms of supply, Intermodal's latest report noted that "there is still some small activity in the newbuilding sector despite the fact that we are approaching the end of the year. It is evident that the wet rather than the dry sector has fed higher activity for the shipbuilding industry this year. With the recent example of Scorpio’s large order reported last week, it is fair to assume that the support from the wet sector has been due to demand for new ECO designs as well as shuttle tankers that have gathered quite a few supporters within the industry. Market sentiment holds the belief that newbuilding prices might have already , or are close to reaching their bottom, especially since steel prices have been firming during the second quarter of the year and one can safely assume that it wont make much economic sense for yards to push their newbuilding prices further down. In terms of reported deals this week, BP has also shaken the wet market with its order last week at STX, Korea of ten Aframaxes for high $50m each and 3 Suezmaxes for high $60 each, for delivery between 2015 an 2016. The vessels are of very high specification including a lot of extras as well as Salt Water Scrubber system in order to comply with tier 3 SOX requirements".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mai ...
Wednesday, 02 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.61 PERCENT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,533,183 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 31 December 2012, Newc ...
Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six ...
Monday, 31 December 12
KOSEP IS LOOKING FOR 280K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR APRIL - JUNE 2013
COALspot.com : South Korean state-owned utility Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOSEP), has issued an new tender for prompt supply of 280,00 ...
Monday, 31 December 12
VALE CELEBRATES ARRIVAL OF "VALE SOHAR" BULK CARRIER TO SULTANATE WITH MEMBERS OF COMMUNITY
'Vale Sohar', one of the largest bulk carriers in the world, was welcomed to Oman by members of the North Al Batinah community headed by H.E. Shei ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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