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Thursday, 20 December 12
CHINA'S IRON ORE AND COAL DEMAND WILL SHAPE THE CAPESIZE DRY BULK TRADE DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Despite the best efforts from ship owners to help alleviate the current tonnage oversupply issue in the dry bulk segment, especially in the larger vessel types of Capesizes, shipbrokers have suggested that it will be the demand aspect of the equation, which will determine whether the market will return to healthier levels during 2013. According to a report from shipbroker firm Intermodal, the rally in charter rates that has been recorded over the past three months has been in high contrast to the overall performance of Capes throughout 2012.
"It's been a completely uninspiring year with the Cape index hovering between 1,000 and 1,500 points for the first 9 months, only managing to break through this range in early October, as a strong drive in iron ore fixtures, mainly supported by the vast stockpiling undertaken by the Chinese, helped push the Index to just over 2,500 points. It is important to point out that we had a peak during November in China’s iron ore imports, which reached their highest level for 2012 and similar only to the volumes seen the same period last year, where rates for capes followed almost the same pattern.
The iron ore market has now turned on its head, as imported ore prices exceed that of the average Chinese produced supplies for the first time since June this year. There is now little reasoning for haste stock piling to take place, especially since prices have reached over $ 124 per dry metric ton, while at the same time arbitrage between local sourced supplies and those shipped from Brazil and Australia is limited. On the plus side much of this firming in prices has been generated by optimism amongst traders that the new improved economic figures coming out of China could propel demand for iron ore much higher over the next couple of months. This has possibly created a speculative sentiment and possibly a situation where we could see a spike in demand within early 2013" wrote Eva Tzima.
She argued that "opportunities have already been unveiled during this final quarter, as the nine-month period of sub-par earnings have started to be reflected in asset values. Despite the overall absence of new orders, newbuilding prices seem to have stopped their drop and are not looking likely to have room to fall much further. On the other side of the equation, we have the fairly strong demo prices on offer keeping the scrap value of a typical capesize bulker (~22,000ldt) well above $ 8.0m. This has created a squeeze in the secondhand market, which, in combination to the drop in prices, means that considering both the newbuilding cost and current scrap value, assets are fairly favorably priced. The most notable example is the case of 15year old vessels which have lately been valued at levels of around $ 11.0m, only 38% higher than their residual scrap value. This has also been heavily reflected in the higher SnP activity noted for 15-20year olds, which accounted for 35% of all cape sales this year".
Concluding, Tzima noted that "we may well have expectations for a slower fleet growth rate of just above 6% next year, however even this may prove to be overwhelming if iron ore and coal seaborne trade keep trending at the same sluggish pace of the first three quarters of 2012. As has been shown in the past 3 months, it all comes down to the support the Chinese government will give to its stimulus plan and by how much this will feed through into the market via growth linked commodities demand and increased infrastructure development" she said.
In terms of newbuilding activity, which is always a determining factor in terms of supply, Intermodal's latest report noted that "there is still some small activity in the newbuilding sector despite the fact that we are approaching the end of the year. It is evident that the wet rather than the dry sector has fed higher activity for the shipbuilding industry this year. With the recent example of Scorpio’s large order reported last week, it is fair to assume that the support from the wet sector has been due to demand for new ECO designs as well as shuttle tankers that have gathered quite a few supporters within the industry. Market sentiment holds the belief that newbuilding prices might have already , or are close to reaching their bottom, especially since steel prices have been firming during the second quarter of the year and one can safely assume that it wont make much economic sense for yards to push their newbuilding prices further down. In terms of reported deals this week, BP has also shaken the wet market with its order last week at STX, Korea of ten Aframaxes for high $50m each and 3 Suezmaxes for high $60 each, for delivery between 2015 an 2016. The vessels are of very high specification including a lot of extras as well as Salt Water Scrubber system in order to comply with tier 3 SOX requirements".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 22 December 12
FALL IN CAPE AND PANAMAX RATES DRAG BDI INDEX - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market further softened this week closing at 700 points (down by 10.71 pct). The cape index continued to fall and w ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR PRODUCED 3.2 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN NOVEMBER' 12
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 28.1 million bcm* (+1.8% YoY) of Overburden in November 2012 while coal production was at 3.2 ...
Friday, 21 December 12
JORC CODE, 2012 EDITION NOW FINALIZED
COALspot.com - The JORC Committee has announced that, the completion of the review of the JORC Code of 2012 Edition.
The JORC Code, 2012 Ed ...
Thursday, 20 December 12
COAL CLOSING IN ON OIL AS WORLD'S TOP ENERGY SOURCE BY 2017
COALspot.com - Coal’s share of the global energy mix continues to rise, and by 2017 coal will come close to surpassing oil as the world’ ...
Tuesday, 18 December 12
NEWCASTLE PORT IN AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 20.19 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 17 DECEMBER 2012
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,269,640 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 17 December 2012, Newc ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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