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Thursday, 20 December 12
CHINA'S IRON ORE AND COAL DEMAND WILL SHAPE THE CAPESIZE DRY BULK TRADE DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Despite the best efforts from ship owners to help alleviate the current tonnage oversupply issue in the dry bulk segment, especially in the larger vessel types of Capesizes, shipbrokers have suggested that it will be the demand aspect of the equation, which will determine whether the market will return to healthier levels during 2013. According to a report from shipbroker firm Intermodal, the rally in charter rates that has been recorded over the past three months has been in high contrast to the overall performance of Capes throughout 2012.
"It's been a completely uninspiring year with the Cape index hovering between 1,000 and 1,500 points for the first 9 months, only managing to break through this range in early October, as a strong drive in iron ore fixtures, mainly supported by the vast stockpiling undertaken by the Chinese, helped push the Index to just over 2,500 points. It is important to point out that we had a peak during November in China’s iron ore imports, which reached their highest level for 2012 and similar only to the volumes seen the same period last year, where rates for capes followed almost the same pattern.
The iron ore market has now turned on its head, as imported ore prices exceed that of the average Chinese produced supplies for the first time since June this year. There is now little reasoning for haste stock piling to take place, especially since prices have reached over $ 124 per dry metric ton, while at the same time arbitrage between local sourced supplies and those shipped from Brazil and Australia is limited. On the plus side much of this firming in prices has been generated by optimism amongst traders that the new improved economic figures coming out of China could propel demand for iron ore much higher over the next couple of months. This has possibly created a speculative sentiment and possibly a situation where we could see a spike in demand within early 2013" wrote Eva Tzima.
She argued that "opportunities have already been unveiled during this final quarter, as the nine-month period of sub-par earnings have started to be reflected in asset values. Despite the overall absence of new orders, newbuilding prices seem to have stopped their drop and are not looking likely to have room to fall much further. On the other side of the equation, we have the fairly strong demo prices on offer keeping the scrap value of a typical capesize bulker (~22,000ldt) well above $ 8.0m. This has created a squeeze in the secondhand market, which, in combination to the drop in prices, means that considering both the newbuilding cost and current scrap value, assets are fairly favorably priced. The most notable example is the case of 15year old vessels which have lately been valued at levels of around $ 11.0m, only 38% higher than their residual scrap value. This has also been heavily reflected in the higher SnP activity noted for 15-20year olds, which accounted for 35% of all cape sales this year".
Concluding, Tzima noted that "we may well have expectations for a slower fleet growth rate of just above 6% next year, however even this may prove to be overwhelming if iron ore and coal seaborne trade keep trending at the same sluggish pace of the first three quarters of 2012. As has been shown in the past 3 months, it all comes down to the support the Chinese government will give to its stimulus plan and by how much this will feed through into the market via growth linked commodities demand and increased infrastructure development" she said.
In terms of newbuilding activity, which is always a determining factor in terms of supply, Intermodal's latest report noted that "there is still some small activity in the newbuilding sector despite the fact that we are approaching the end of the year. It is evident that the wet rather than the dry sector has fed higher activity for the shipbuilding industry this year. With the recent example of Scorpio’s large order reported last week, it is fair to assume that the support from the wet sector has been due to demand for new ECO designs as well as shuttle tankers that have gathered quite a few supporters within the industry. Market sentiment holds the belief that newbuilding prices might have already , or are close to reaching their bottom, especially since steel prices have been firming during the second quarter of the year and one can safely assume that it wont make much economic sense for yards to push their newbuilding prices further down. In terms of reported deals this week, BP has also shaken the wet market with its order last week at STX, Korea of ten Aframaxes for high $50m each and 3 Suezmaxes for high $60 each, for delivery between 2015 an 2016. The vessels are of very high specification including a lot of extras as well as Salt Water Scrubber system in order to comply with tier 3 SOX requirements".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 12 December 12
69.23 PERCENT OF END-USERS ARE BELIEVE, COAL PRICES ARE IN UPWARD TREND
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal reference price for December’ 12 has gained US cents 31 per MT M-o- ...
Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the foll ...
Tuesday, 11 December 12
NEWCASTLE PORT IN AUSTRALIA HAS LOADED 2,720,205 MT OF COAL W/E 10 DECEMBER 2012
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,720,205 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 10 December 2012, Newc ...
Sunday, 09 December 12
COAL SWAPS HAVE LOST DIRECTION DUE TO LACK OF ASIAN INTEREST
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery gained 2.43 percent M-M but lost WoW by 0.54 percent and 0.62 ...
Sunday, 09 December 12
LOW DEMAND PUSHES CHARTER RATES TOWARDS DOWN - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market has softened and BDI, The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry bulk goods, plunged below 10 ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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