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Thursday, 20 December 12
CHINA'S IRON ORE AND COAL DEMAND WILL SHAPE THE CAPESIZE DRY BULK TRADE DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Despite the best efforts from ship owners to help alleviate the current tonnage oversupply issue in the dry bulk segment, especially in the larger vessel types of Capesizes, shipbrokers have suggested that it will be the demand aspect of the equation, which will determine whether the market will return to healthier levels during 2013. According to a report from shipbroker firm Intermodal, the rally in charter rates that has been recorded over the past three months has been in high contrast to the overall performance of Capes throughout 2012.
"It's been a completely uninspiring year with the Cape index hovering between 1,000 and 1,500 points for the first 9 months, only managing to break through this range in early October, as a strong drive in iron ore fixtures, mainly supported by the vast stockpiling undertaken by the Chinese, helped push the Index to just over 2,500 points. It is important to point out that we had a peak during November in China’s iron ore imports, which reached their highest level for 2012 and similar only to the volumes seen the same period last year, where rates for capes followed almost the same pattern.
The iron ore market has now turned on its head, as imported ore prices exceed that of the average Chinese produced supplies for the first time since June this year. There is now little reasoning for haste stock piling to take place, especially since prices have reached over $ 124 per dry metric ton, while at the same time arbitrage between local sourced supplies and those shipped from Brazil and Australia is limited. On the plus side much of this firming in prices has been generated by optimism amongst traders that the new improved economic figures coming out of China could propel demand for iron ore much higher over the next couple of months. This has possibly created a speculative sentiment and possibly a situation where we could see a spike in demand within early 2013" wrote Eva Tzima.
She argued that "opportunities have already been unveiled during this final quarter, as the nine-month period of sub-par earnings have started to be reflected in asset values. Despite the overall absence of new orders, newbuilding prices seem to have stopped their drop and are not looking likely to have room to fall much further. On the other side of the equation, we have the fairly strong demo prices on offer keeping the scrap value of a typical capesize bulker (~22,000ldt) well above $ 8.0m. This has created a squeeze in the secondhand market, which, in combination to the drop in prices, means that considering both the newbuilding cost and current scrap value, assets are fairly favorably priced. The most notable example is the case of 15year old vessels which have lately been valued at levels of around $ 11.0m, only 38% higher than their residual scrap value. This has also been heavily reflected in the higher SnP activity noted for 15-20year olds, which accounted for 35% of all cape sales this year".
Concluding, Tzima noted that "we may well have expectations for a slower fleet growth rate of just above 6% next year, however even this may prove to be overwhelming if iron ore and coal seaborne trade keep trending at the same sluggish pace of the first three quarters of 2012. As has been shown in the past 3 months, it all comes down to the support the Chinese government will give to its stimulus plan and by how much this will feed through into the market via growth linked commodities demand and increased infrastructure development" she said.
In terms of newbuilding activity, which is always a determining factor in terms of supply, Intermodal's latest report noted that "there is still some small activity in the newbuilding sector despite the fact that we are approaching the end of the year. It is evident that the wet rather than the dry sector has fed higher activity for the shipbuilding industry this year. With the recent example of Scorpio’s large order reported last week, it is fair to assume that the support from the wet sector has been due to demand for new ECO designs as well as shuttle tankers that have gathered quite a few supporters within the industry. Market sentiment holds the belief that newbuilding prices might have already , or are close to reaching their bottom, especially since steel prices have been firming during the second quarter of the year and one can safely assume that it wont make much economic sense for yards to push their newbuilding prices further down. In terms of reported deals this week, BP has also shaken the wet market with its order last week at STX, Korea of ten Aframaxes for high $50m each and 3 Suezmaxes for high $60 each, for delivery between 2015 an 2016. The vessels are of very high specification including a lot of extras as well as Salt Water Scrubber system in order to comply with tier 3 SOX requirements".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 07 December 12
A NEW PHASE FOR AUSTRALIAN RESOURCES - A FITCH STREET INTERVIEW
This week Matt Jamieson spoke with Andrew Colquhoun in Fitch's Asian sovereign rating team, and Vicky Melbourne, Fitch's commodity analyst based i ...
Friday, 07 December 12
SHIPPING INDUSTRY LOOKING ON YET ANOTHER TOUGH YEAR AS WE APPROACH 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most import ...
Thursday, 06 December 12
PANAMAX : THE POSITIVE VIBES IN THE ATLANTIC REMAINS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market is still depressed with dearth of cargoes and more ships. The trips from Continent to Feast fixed around USD 12k. Trips f ...
Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commod ...
Tuesday, 04 December 12
JATENERGY SIGNS MOU FOR INDONESIAN COAL ASSET
COALspot.com - Jatenergy Limited has announced that its fully-owned Indonesian subsidiary, PT Barata Energy (BE), has signed an exclusive, non-bindi ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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