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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mai ...
Wednesday, 02 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.61 PERCENT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,533,183 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 31 December 2012, Newc ...
Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six ...
Monday, 31 December 12
KOSEP IS LOOKING FOR 280K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR APRIL - JUNE 2013
COALspot.com : South Korean state-owned utility Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOSEP), has issued an new tender for prompt supply of 280,00 ...
Monday, 31 December 12
VALE CELEBRATES ARRIVAL OF "VALE SOHAR" BULK CARRIER TO SULTANATE WITH MEMBERS OF COMMUNITY
'Vale Sohar', one of the largest bulk carriers in the world, was welcomed to Oman by members of the North Al Batinah community headed by H.E. Shei ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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