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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 06 January 13
FREIGHT MARKET REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
WISH YOU ALL HAPPY NEW YEAR
COALspot.com - The freight market remained fairly steady in spite of Christmas / New Year Holidays. The BDI was almos ...
Saturday, 05 January 13
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2012 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
Global Economy: Things will go up from here
The global economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than previous years. The slower economic ...
Friday, 04 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR DIRECTION IN FIRST TRADING DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is actively looking for its footing at the start of the New Year, as charters have been scarce, as is usually the case during th ...
Thursday, 03 January 13
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS CLOSED US$ 6.86 HIGHER FOR 2014 DELIVERY
COALspot.com - Swaps prices were changed positively for thermal coal for loading in the first quarter from Indonesia, according to SGX AsiaClear OTC ...
Thursday, 03 January 13
SUPRMAX FREIGHT RATE FROM RED SEA / INDIA IS AROUND MID TEENS - FEARNLEYS
Fearnleys in its weekly report said that, Indian market was very quiet in respect of export of iron ore. For Indo-India trip Supra rate was hovering ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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