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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 13 January 13
THE FREIGHT MARKET: FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was fairly steady with all the indices up with maximum gain in the Panamax segment. The BDI was up by 7.65 pct clo ...
Saturday, 12 January 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEAK
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery has lost 0.32 percent WoW but CFR South China coal ship ...
Saturday, 12 January 13
HIGHER COAL PRICES: SEASONAL EFFECT
COALspot.com : Bahana Securities, one of the leading securities in Indonesia, said in its latest coal outlook that, on US and China&rsquo ...
Friday, 11 January 13
HBA HAS JUMPED BY US$ 5.80 PMT IN JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared bench mark price for coal higher than December price. The monthly coal reference price f ...
Thursday, 10 January 13
PANAMAX : SOME GLIMMERS OF HOPE MID WEEK - FEARNLEYS
According to Fearnley’s weekly report, the Atlantic handy market is stable with rates around USD 11k for Cont-Feast and USD 17k bss USG/Feast. ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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