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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 10 January 13
DRY BULK PANAMAX MARKET HEAVILY OVERSUPPLIED, UNLIKELY TO FIND SUPPORT IN 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite positive indication for a significant surge of dry bulk demand this year, the oversupply problems of the market, will continue to weigh heav ...
Tuesday, 08 January 13
HOLIDAY ACTIVITY SCARCE IN THE MARKET OF SECOND HAND VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although the market for second hand vessel purchasing was quite lull during the Holiday period, as is usually the case, the first days of the New Ye ...
Tuesday, 08 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 3.197 MILLION MT OF COAL W/E 7 JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,197,580 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 7 January 2013, Newcas ...
Sunday, 06 January 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL: 2014 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 6.80 HIGHER THAN Q1 '13 PRICE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.37 percent WoW and CFR South China coal sh ...
Sunday, 06 January 13
COAL BOOM: WAKE-UP CALL FOR INDIA & INDONESIA! - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Coal Boom : Scenario, Now & later!
Coal has been the dominant fuel for power generating plants in developed countries since th ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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