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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 31 December 12
"DISTRESSED", "ECO" AND "FINANCE" ARE THE THREE WORDS WHICH CHARACTERIZED 2012 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2012 was yet another year of speculation, anticipation, pessimism and more speculation in the shipping markets. According to the latest weekly repor ...
Saturday, 29 December 12
SHIPBREAKING YARDS IN INDIA DEMOLISH A TOTAL OF 527 VESSELS IN 2012, BREAKING ALL PREVIOUS RECORDS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
India's ship demolition experts of Star Matrix contemplated this week on the issue of why ships in the range of 1,000 and up to 6,500 liquid tons ( ...
Thursday, 27 December 12
A LOOK AT WORLD TRADE PATTERNS DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
While China's leaders are likely to stick with the 2012 economic growth rate of 7.5% when they chart a course for 2013 - its weakest pace since 199 ...
Thursday, 27 December 12
INDONESIA SHIPPED 33.578* MMT COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter has shipped 33.578* million tons of coal in November 2012. thi ...
Wednesday, 26 December 12
UPDATE ON EXPORT BAN ON RAW MINERALS AND ORE - RITA SUSANTO
COALspot.com - In May 2012, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (“MoEMR”) in Regulation No.7 (“Reg-7”, amended by R ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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