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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 26 December 12
SHIP OWNERS WRAP UP NEWBUILDING DEALS PRIOR TO YEAR END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the year inches closer and closer to its end, many ship owners are looking to close deals for newbuilding vessels they have been negotiating duri ...
Monday, 24 December 12
CONSTITUTIONAL COURT DECISION MAY FURTHER DELAY THE ISSUANCE OF NEW MINING BUSINESS LICENCES - TJEN SHE SIUNG
COALspot.com - In November 2012 the Constitutional Court of Indonesia issued a decision on amendments to certain provisions under the Mining Law No. ...
Monday, 24 December 12
BUNKER PRICES TO CONTINUE RISING, ALBEIT IN A SLOWER MODE, DURING THE NEXT FEW YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEW
In a recent report, US-based consulting firm Mcquilling Services attempted to forecast the course of bunker prices during the next few years, as thi ...
Sunday, 23 December 12
Q4' 2013 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP, US$ 3.40 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 2013 PRICE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery gained 1.94 percent M-M and WoW by 1.57percent but lost 0.35 ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
SECOND HAND VESSELS ENJOY HIGH DEMAND AS PRICES ARE ATTRACTIVE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the year is closing to its end, activity in the second hand vessel market has been more than high. Ship owners are looking to ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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